The Bills catch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an optimal role this week, according to the betting trends.
- The Bills are 7-0 ATS (against the spread) at home after a bye week following a loss to non-division opponents.
- They also are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games against NFC opponents.
- The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS away in non-division games following an away game when facing a team that they lost to in the previous meeting.
- Tampa Bay is also 0-5 ATS in games before facing the Carolina Panthers.
The pick: Bills over Tampa Bay by 6.
Thanks to their waning offense, the Bills were outgained in their last four contests. That's generally bad news for NFL teams that find themselves favored. However, Tampa Bay has problems of its own as the Bucs allowed Arizona a season-high 432 yards in last week’s 38-33 loss to the Cardinals. It marked the third time this campaign that the Bucs have surrendered season-high yardage in a game. We’d be all over the Bills even more here if their offensive numbers were stronger.
Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at Playbook.com or @MarcLawrence.