Where and when will heavy rainfall threaten flooding? - The Buffalo News

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Where and when will heavy rainfall threaten flooding?

A 131-year-old record for daily rainfall could be broken in Buffalo Thursday. About two inches of rain is forecast.

That's going to stress wastewater treatment plants for sure – as well as creeks and streams.

Here's a look at some that are forecast to be the most threatened by rising waters:

Minor flooding is forecast on creeks and streams represented by orange dots, according to federal hydrology models.

Cayuga, Cazenovia and Cattaraugus creeks are forecast among the most likely to experience minor flooding, according to federal models by the U.S. Geological Survey and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The most dire of that bunch appears to be Cazenovia Creek at Ebenezer, especially on Thursday, forecasts show.

Heavy rainfall is forecast to cause a quick rise in Cazenovia Creek in Ebenezer, which will reach flood stage on Thursday, forecasts show. (NOAA/USGS)

Heavy rainfall is expected to result in a quick rise on the creek starting Thursday morning.

By dinnertime, the creek waters are forecast to continue above the 10-foot flood stage through midevening.

Forecasts show the creek could crest at 1.2 feet above flood stage by about 9 p.m. before finally retreating on Friday.

Although it's not classified as a "major flood" per se – historically, there have only been eight of them with the most recent one coming in 2009 – the waters will rise enough for residents near the creek to make necessary preparations to deal with a threat of flooding.

Meanwhile, Cayuga Creek at Lancaster is expected to start taking on water more gradually Thursday, reaching the 6-foot "action stage" by late Thursday afternoon.

Forecasts show that minor flooding is expected Friday morning.

Cattaraugus Creek at Gowanda is also expected to see similar rising waters.

The creek is forecast to swell during the day Thursday and will crest into flood stage by Friday morning, models show.

Ellicott Creek below Williamsville and Buffalo Creek at Gardenville are forecast to rise into action stage by Friday morning.

The National Weather Service has a flood watch posted for all of Western New York from 8 a.m. Thursday to 2 p.m. Saturday.

Nearly two inches of rain is expected to fall at Buffalo on Thursday, forecast graphs show. That would set a new record for daily rainfall. (National Weather Service)

The rain is forecast to start just after midnight and continue all of Thursday and into Friday.

Nearly two inches of rain is forecast to fall on Thursday alone, which would shatter the daily record at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport (0.91 inches) that was set in 1994.

It would also eclipse Buffalo's all-time mark of 1.22 inches for the date set back in 1886. Official records were kept at the Buffalo Harbor before World War II.

It's possible the day also takes a run at the all-time mark for most rainfall in an April day.

The high water mark for precipitation is 1.97 inches. That fell at the Buffalo airport on April 5, 1941.

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