Expect the transition from Buffalo's warmest February ever into the month of March to be bumpy.
An advancing storm system from the Ohio Valley will help bring thunderstorms, heavy downpours, gusty winds and a marginal potential for severe weather damage in the Buffalo Niagara region, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
The first day of March will also be a warm one – possibly record warm.
Forecasts call for temperatures to reach into the mid 60s on Wednesday. The record high in Buffalo for the date is 64 degrees, set in 1954.
There will also be wind.
A wind advisory is posted for 6 p.m. Wednesday to 4 a.m. Thursday for Erie, Niagara, Chautauqua, Orleans, Genesee and Wyoming counties.
Then, the bottom falls out on the weather roller coaster for Thursday and Friday with below-average temperatures and snow, forecasts show.
Here's what to expect, and when:
Chances for showers in the early afternoon, otherwise mostly cloudy with a southerly breeze. Temperatures will climb to near 60 degrees by mid afternoon, bottom out in the low 50s by about 10 p.m. before climbing again overnight with another surge of warm air as a storm system approaches.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase after midnight, forecasts show.
Up to one-quarter inch of rain is possible by morning.
Southerly winds will increase overnight and become more southwesterly.
The greatest chance for a thunderstorm is expected by dawn. Wake-up temperatures Wednesday will be near 60 degrees.
Chances of rain by 6 a.m. increase to near 90 percent.
The best chances for showers and thunderstorms come before noon, according to the National Weather Service. After a lull between noon and about 3 p.m., chances increase again for showers and thunderstorms through about dinnertime.
Winds will really start to pick up by late afternoon, becoming westerly and gusting to 50 mph by early evening.
Forecasters warm that some storms "could produce gusty winds and heavy rain."
"A few storms may also produce locally heavy downpours, which could produce localized minor flooding," the weather service reported.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph could also cause some damage, prompting the advisory.
"Winds of this magnitude will result in a few tree limbs coming down and isolated power outages," the advisory said. "Travel in high profile vehicles will be difficult at times in open areas."
Between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m., the temperature is forecast to drop from the low 50s down to the freezing mark behind a passing cold front.
The rain showers begin changing over to snow by about midnight as temperatures continue to plunge.
About an inch of snow is possible by morning in the Buffalo metro area.
Winds will dissipate considerably after midnight hours.
The overnight low will be in the mid 20s, forecasts show.
Thursday and Thursday night
Chances for snow showers with the first below average day for temperature expected since Feb. 16.
The daytime high will be near 30 degrees with an overnight low near 20, according to the National Weather Service.
Friday and Friday night
There's a 40 percent chance of snow showers with a high in the upper 20s, the weather service reported.
Temperatures then drop into the teens by Friday night, forecasts show.
The average high temperature for March 3 is 37 degrees with a low of 22.