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Just how warm will the next week be?

Many local schoolchildren will be out of classes next week for midwinter break, but the weather outside will feel more springlike.

A dramatic change in the weather pattern starting Friday will usher in temperatures 10 or more degrees above normal by the weekend.

The warm-up is forecast to extend into next week, according to the National Weather Service:

Above-average temperatures are forecast for the holiday weekend. Days in the upper 40s to low 50s are also expected Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. (National Weather Service)

Saturday's high could make 50 degrees if conditions line up just right, forecasters at the National Weather Service said.

Forecast models suggest moisture at the ground could help generate some cloud cover, preventing warmer air aloft from reaching the surface.

Forecasters think that it's likely more mixing - and sunshine - will occur than the computers suggest, however.

And, that could mean readings in the lower 50s for many areas with 40s still in place for spots northeast of Lake Erie, which remained at 33 degrees today.

Cooler air is expected Sunday, but the temperature will remain above average - in the low 40s.

The average high for this time of year is 34 degrees.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast to continue into the early part of the week as well as air sourced from the Pacific helps to lock the coldest air far away to the north, weather service forecasters said.

Fifties are in the offing by Tuesday across many parts of the Great Lakes region, including Western New York. (

For Monday's Presidents Day holiday, the thermometer is expected to linger in the low to mid 40s.

It'll warm up more Tuesday - to 50 degrees or more - before receding slightly back into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures overnight should hold near freezing, forecasts show.

That's in stark contrast to February two years ago when the mercury never got above 32 degrees the entire month. At 10.9 degrees, February 2015 went down as the coldest February in Buffalo's history.

It’s official: February was the coldest month on record in Buffalo

So far this month, the average temperature of 28.5 degrees heading into today is 3.1 degrees warmer than a normal Buffalo February.

With the warm-up this coming week, it's almost a certainty that this month will continue the string of above-average months for warmth.

Heading into February, 17 of the last 18 months have been warmer than average.

Only last April ended cooler than normal.

Early forecast maps suggest that the next look at some colder weather is possible by the last few days of the month.

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