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'At least a modest amount of snow' possible later Sunday

Friday is the two-year anniversary of the November Storm.

Forecasts show this Nov. 18, it'll be nearly 20 degrees warmer than average in Buffalo.

Daytime highs should reach the mid-60s under sunny skies.

But don't get used to Mother Nature's benevolence.

The first measurable snowfall of the season could be just days behind it.

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By about 7 a.m. Sunday, most of Western New York is shaded in blue, which means expect to see snowflakes in the air when you wake up. [Click on the image for full forecast progression.] (TropicalTidbits.com)

National Weather Service forecasters confidence about the possibility for wintry weather is growing with each subsequent forecast discussion.

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Excerpt from this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook. (National Weather Service, Buffalo)

In its latest discussion, posted about 6:30 a.m. today, forecasters said snow will first develop in the higher terrain areas but as cold air deepens will begin to make its way down to lower elevations later on Sunday.

Forecasters also cautioned against getting locked in just yet as to how much snow could fall.

"Given the complex scenario of the synoptic evolution and run-to-run model differences, any one model run should be taken with a grain of salt with respect to snow potential," forecasters stated. "That said, the pattern evolution does support the possibility of at least a modest amount of snow over much of the region."

With one-tenth inch of snow at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, it would be the first measurable snowfall of the season at Buffalo.

The average date for the first measurable snow is Nov. 8.

Last year, the Buffalo Niagara region reached its latest date ever for first measurable snow, Dec. 18, when 0.1 inch was recorded breaking the former record of Dec. 3, 1899.

Here's a look at the dates of the first measurable snow in Buffalo over the last 10 years:

2015:   Dec. 18   (0.1")

2014:   Nov. 13   (0.3")

2013:   Nov. 11   (0.7")

2012:   Nov. 25   (1.6")

2011:   Dec. 2   (0.4")

2010:   Nov. 26   (1.6")

2009:   Dec. 1   (5.8")

2008:   Oct. 29   (0.1")

2007:   Nov. 6   (2.5")

2006:   Oct. 12   (8.6")

 

 

 

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