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No fooling: early April Arctic outbreak expected, lake-effect snow possible

Forecasters are describing the next week or so of weather in the Buffalo Niagara region as like being on a roller coaster.

After another ridge of warm air during the middle part of this week, the dip at the end of it will last through early next week.

Expect a queasy stomach.

That's because some of the coldest air to grip the region in weeks is expected.

Daytime highs might not get out of the 20s Sunday. And, overnight lows could dip into the teens.

Forecasters say it will be colder than 99 percent of all other airmasses that cross the Buffalo Niagara region at this time of year.

"This will result in a spring Arctic outbreak across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States," according to Atmospheric and Environmental Research scientists.


It's a drastic change after a March that's on pace to go down as the seventh-warmest March on record at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport.

March will also go down as the eighth consecutive month of above-average monthly temperatures at Buffalo.

April will start far below normal, forecasters from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather agree.

After highs in the 50s and 60s Wednesday and Thursday, the mercury slips back into the 40s Friday and Saturday before the bottom really drops out later in the weekend. It isn't expected to make it out of the upper 20s on Sunday before rebounding slightly into the 30s Monday, according to forecasts.

The average daytime high temperature for the first week in April in Buffalo is about 50 degrees.

The cold blast could also churn up the lake-effect snow machine for a rare late season shot of snow.

Lake Erie's temperature Monday was 38 degrees. It has been more than 99 percent free of ice since March 8, according to statistics from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

Excerpt from the National Weather Service forecaster's discussion

Excerpted from the National Weather Service forecaster's discussion (emphasis added).



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