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No measurable snow likely through at least Dec. 10; all-time record should shatter

On Dec. 1, 2014, more than 20 inches of snow was already recorded at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, making it the second-snowiest autumn of the century.

By the end of this week, Buffalo is expected to set a new mark for the least-snowiest start to the season spanning three centuries of recorded weather history.

November 2015, at an average temperature of 46.2 degrees, finished as the seventh-warmest in Buffalo's recorded weather history. The warmest was an average of 47.9 degrees in 1931.

It was also among the most dry. There was 1.40 inches of rainfall during the month, which is 2.61 inches less precipitation than an average November.

Forecasts show there may be some snow falling in higher elevations during a storm system late Wednesday night in the Buffalo Niagara Region, but there's no immediate snow in sight in metro Buffalo, according to Tuesday's National Weather Service forecast discussion:

 

EXPECT UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN ERIE AND 
WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE BRISTOL HILLS...AND ALSO 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL NEVER DROP 
BELOW FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW. IF BUFFALO CAN ESCAPE THIS PERIOD WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW... A
NEW RECORD WILL BE SET FOR THE LATEST FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW. IN FACT
THE RECORD WOULD BE SHATTERED WITH LITTLE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE LONG
TERM THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 10. THE PREVIOUS LATEST MEASURABLE SNOW ON
RECORD AT BUFFALO WAS DECEMBER 3RD SET IN 1899.

 

Weather service forecasters are also calling for a warmer than average month of December.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is calling for a warmer than average December for much of the county's northern tier. (NOAA CPC image)

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is calling for a warmer than average December for much of the county's northern tier. (NOAA CPC image)

 

A "measurable snowfall" is defined by the weather service as one that is at least one-tenth of an inch, anything less is called a "trace" of snow.

Traces of snow have been recorded this year at BNIA on Oct. 17 and 18 as well as on Nov. 20, 21, 23, 24 and 28.

 

Here's a look at how late autumn snowfall totals at Buffalo have been since weather service records started being kept at the airport in Cheektowaga during World War II:

Snowiest October: 2006, 22.6 inches

Snowiest November: 2000, 45.6 inches

 

Least snowiest years at BNIA as of Dec. 1: 2015, 2011, 2009, 1946; trace

First measurable snow during those years:

2011: Dec. 2, 0.4 inches

2009: Dec. 1, 5.8 inches

1946: Dec. 2, 1.0 inches

 

YEAR OCT NOV TOTAL
2015 Trace Trace Trace
2014 Trace 20.5 20.5
2013 Trace 10 10
2012 0 2.4 2.4
2011 Trace Trace Trace
2010 Trace 1.6 1.6
2009 Trace Trace Trace
2008 0.1 6.2 6.3
2007 0 3.4 3.4
2006 22.6 2.1 24.7
2005 0 17.9 17.9
2004 Trace 0.2 0.2
2003 Trace 4.2 4.2
2002 Trace 8.9 8.9
2001 0.4 0 0.4
2000 Trace 45.6 45.6
1999 Trace 0.9 0.9
1998 0 0.2 0.2
1997 0.2 16.5 16.7
1996 0 11.5 11.5
1995 0 15.7 15.7
1994 0 0.9 0.9
1993 2.9 4.8 7.7
1992 0.6 13.7 14.3
1991 0.2 18 18.2
1990 Trace 0.7 0.7
1989 Trace 7.8 7.8
1988 0.5 0.6 1.1
1987 Trace 0.9 0.9
1986 0 13.7 13.7
1985 0 5.2 5.2
1984 0 1.4 1.4
1983 Trace 17.7 17.7
1982 0 15.8 15.8
1981 Trace 1.8 1.8
1980 Trace 6.7 6.7
1979 Trace 12.6 12.6
1978 Trace 3 3
1977 Trace 15 15
1976 0.2 31.3 31.5
1975 Trace 5.5 5.5
1974 Trace 22.1 22.1
1973 0 3 3
1972 3.1 18.9 22
1971 0 18.7 18.7
1970 0 2.6 2.6
1969 1 22.1 23.1
1968 Trace 11.6 11.6
1967 Trace 19.7 19.7
1966 0 10 10
1965 1.2 12.2 13.4
1964 Trace 5.4 5.4
1963 0 3.1 3.1
1962 2 2.5 4.5
1961 Trace 5.6 5.6
1960 1 15.9 16.9
1959 Trace 10 10
1958 0 13.5 13.5
1957 Trace 19.2 19.2
1956 0 16.2 16.2
1955 Trace 26 26
1954 1 0.7 1.7
1953 0 22.7 22.7
1952 0.4 11.2 11.6
1951 Trace 17.7 17.7
1950 0 15.2 15.2
1949 0 28.6 28.6
1948 Trace 1.3 1.3
1947 0 9.9 9.9
1946 0 Trace Trace
1945 Trace 12.8 12.8
1944 0 3.9 3.9
1943 1.5 13.6 15.1

 

 

 

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